The amount of rain which has fallen looks a key factor, including as Miller Spirit should be one of the chief beneficiaries if there's been a downpour, while Candyman Stan and Great Bedwyn are among several prominent candidates who could be inconvenienced. The lightly raced Valvano shaped well on his reappearance and Dream Harder returned to winning form last Saturday but preference is for SMALL FRY, who should not mind how much rain there's been and is one of those who has proved himself at this track. He gets the vote whatever the weather and stablemate Miller Spirit may follow him home if the race is run on soft ground.[Richard Austen]
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Completed hat-trick in Newmarket handicap (1m4f, good) last May, the first two legs having come on heavy ground; eighth of 23 in the November Handicap at Doncaster (1m4f, soft) was a lot more like it again; absent since (gelded) and a career best is needed to win this but he can go well fresh.
Lightly raced 4yo who goes well in the mud and has run well in all three of his handicaps, including when fifth of 23 in the November Handicap at Doncaster (1m4f; favourite) and an encouraging fourth of 11 at Goodwood (1m2f, good) five weeks ago; needs a bit extra and cheekpieces are enlisted.
Five wins in a tremendously progressive 2024 on Flat, two over C&D on soft/heavy; ploughing through testing ground seems to suit him far better than the good going he's had this term, of which latest start was far better than reappearance; chance if back to his best and although he's worn headgear only once in the last two seasons, he did win once in cheekpieces in 2023.
Usually runs with credit and his narrow win at York (1m4f, good to firm; 4lb higher today) on latest outing was career-best form; there is more for him to prove, though, if the ground is softer than good.
His five wins in 2024 were all on AW but he was third in this race last year (good to soft; not proven on worse) and hit a new high when winning in good style over C&D (good) this April; going up 7lb asks more of him.
Just six races and usually made the running, including for all three of his wins (AW/good to firm); justified favouritism in handicaps over about 1m4f at Brighton and Lingfield this season, finding plenty to end well on top; up another 5lb, in a much harder race to dominate up front, but a poor show on soft ground last September would be the chief worry if it's raining.
Acts on good to soft, unraced on worse; both turf wins were last May at Chester, where he looked threatening on the second of three starts this season; pulled hard but stayed on when fourth of 19 in a 1m4f Royal Ascot handicap last term, but he needs extra to win this in first-time headgear.
1-5 for Richard Hannon and now 1-4 for current yard after prevailing in good style at Newcastle (1m4f, AW debut) four weeks ago; seemed to act on a range on ground on turf before that but that AW run was a significant advance and he's now gone back up 7lb.
Won three in a row over about 1m4f last summer, the first leg on good to soft (well beaten at Chester on both his starts on soft); resumed improvement when scoring at Ascot (1m4f, good to firm) four weeks ago and did it by nearly 4l; hard to dismiss after that display but he's 7lb higher today.
Never dangerous in this race last year on his only visit to Epsom; however, he's scored twice at Chester (which has similarities to this track) and that includes over 1m4f last Saturday when his head was in front where it matters for the first time in 22 months; back up 2lb but still 5lb below his peak mark and soft ground should not be a problem; in the mix.
Often front-runner but not on last four outings; his wins have got more infrequent and the latest (2024 reappearance) was in just a three-runner race; has a good mark if on song and he's a renowned mud lover, so testing ground would make him hard to dismiss totally even though he's now an 11yo.
Unraced on good to soft or worse; won 1m2f maiden at Leopardstown last July on third and final run for Aidan O'Brien; sold for 30,000gns last October and has run respectably in handicaps (2m and 11.6f) on his two starts for new yard, but needs better than that; 5lb claimer is recruited.
This time last year he was running over 5f/6f but slow starts (he can have second thoughts) helped put pay to that and this season he's left his old form way behind with three wins at 1m2f followed by one at 1m4f (all on AW or firmer than good); third of 14 at Newbury (1m2f) might suggest the handicapper has caught up but his 1m4f win the time before was delivered in taking style; recent rain is probably a concern.
Flourished last July-October with three wins and three seconds in space of six races, with the second win in good style over C&D on soft; on the upgrade again when he scored under Ashley Lewis at Chester (1m4f, good; 5lb higher today) four weeks ago, which tees him up nicely for a big run today.
It was on AW last autumn/winter that he first found his groove but cheekpieces also played a part in that and he returned to turf with an authoritative win at Ripon (1m4f, good to soft) nine days ago; up another 6lb and in class, while he also made all for all three of his wins, which should be much more difficult in this field.
Handicapper had his measure in the closing stages of 2024 Flat campaign for Michael Bell; he did pretty well over hurdles for new yard (last seen ten weeks ago) and sole win in that sphere was on soft, but needs to show something new to win a race of this nature.
Six AW wins during December-March, the second of which was over 1m4f and the last over 8.6f; hampered back on turf one month ago but well beaten behind Dream Harder last Saturday and 6lb out of the handicap today.
1/5 Odds Place 1,2,3,4
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